Hi there,
To design a successful pretotype, one of the most important things is to establish your XYZ hypothesis. This is where we "say it with numbers," writing a statement that helps us measure what success looks like. It's a fill-in-the-blank exercise, and it goes like this:
At least [X = percent] of [Y = market segment] will do [Z = action]
This is what makes pretotyping so powerful. By agreeing on these numbers upfront, we get really clear on what success looks like for these pretotypes or experiments.
The example I give in our online pretotyping course is to do with second-day sushi.
Our first (too vague) hypothesis is that ‘people will buy second day sushi if it’s cheap enough,’ but this doesn't tell us what success looks like. Instead, we need an XYZ hypothesis: "At least 20 percent (that's X - the percent) of packaged sushi-buyers (that's Y - the market segment) will buy second day sushi if it’s half the price of fresh sushi (that's Z - the action). (By the way, no-one wanted second-day sushi - we killed that idea pretty fast).
Naming your Y (the market segment) and Z (the action you want customers to take) is pretty easy. But how do you work out what percentage to choose? How do you solve for X?
This has been the #1 question asked by pretotypers in our private, free Slack channel this month, and Alberto has delivered the answer is style, with a video called the Math of Success:
